Disclaimer and methodology
Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. We also publish the periods when we are wrong.
This text is a working version and may change before launch.
1. Probabilities, not certainties
A 60% probability means that, over a large number of similar situations, about 4 in 10 will not happen. A single result neither confirms nor refutes the model.
2. Methodology in brief
The models combine historical results, team form and public consensus odds. The margin is removed from the odds with standard methods (for example Shin). The technical details will be published on a methodology page.
3. Verifiable track record
Every prediction is timestamped and compared with the closing odds (CLV). We publish calibration scores (Brier, log-loss), including for the weak periods.
4. No conflict of interest
In this phase we receive no money from gambling operators and earn no commission linked to your bets.
5. Demo data
Pages marked "Demo data" contain fictional matches and figures, used only to show the interface.
Operator
Dragos Catalin Vladulescu, private individual
Contact: contact@marcai.ro